Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 September 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Sep 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
1569 (S12E14) produced occasional B-class flares. It showed a slight
decrease in intermediate spots, but retained a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. No significant changes were observed in the remaining
spotted regions. No new regions were numbered. No Earth-directed CME
activity occurred during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (15 – 17 September) with a chance for a
C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (15
September) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream. A further
increase to unsettled levels is expected on day 2 (16 September)
with a chance for active levels due to the arrival of the CME
associated with the filament disappearance on 13 September. Field
activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day
3 (17 September).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 101
Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 14 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 009/010-011/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/10
Minor storm 01/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor storm 15/30/20
Major-severe storm 05/30/10