Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Sep 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Sep 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1564 (S11W82)
was the most active region with several C-class flares, the largest
of which was a C6/Sf at 10/2356Z. Regions 1567 (N16W02) and 1569
(S12E53) also contributed to the C-class flare activity. Region
1567 decayed throughout the period. There was no Earth directed CME
activity during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare for the first day (12
September). M-class probability is expected to decrease for the
second and third days (13-14 September) as Region 1564 rotates out
of view.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet with a slight chance for unsettled levels on
days 1 and 2 (12-13 September). An increase to quiet to unsettled
levels with a slight chance for an active period is expected on the
third day (14 September) due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
Class M 20/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Sep 105
Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 105/100/095
90 Day Mean 11 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 004/005-004/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/10