Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 September 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Sep 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 1560 (N05W89) and 1562
(S20W63) each produced a few low-level C flares. Region 1562
continued to grow in areal coverage overnight. New Region 1567
(N17E56) was numbered today. The region is a simple Bxo-beta type
spot group. All other regions on the disk were quiet and stable. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for isolated M-class activity for the next
three days (08-10 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain mostly quiet for the next three days (08-10
September).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M 20/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 133
Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 125/120/115
90 Day Mean 07 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 007/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10