Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 August 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1542 (S13W04)
produced a B8/Sf at 12/1344Z, and several other Sf optical flares
throughout the period. Region 1543 (N20E07) remained the largest
region on the disk. Both Regions 1542 and 1543 ended the period
with beta-gamma magnetic configurations.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A solar sector boundary change,
from positive to negative occurred at approximately 12/1330Z. Wind
speed at the ACE spacecraft rose from approximatly 300 km/s at the
beginning of the period to end near 400 km/s. The Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field was slightly negative from 11/21Z
to 12/06Z, then ranged from +/- 5nT for the remainder of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a slight chance for an
active period, for days 1 and 2 (13-14 August) before becoming
mostly quiet on day 3 (15 August). The increased activity on the
first two days is expected from the influence of a weak high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M 15/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 112
Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 115/110/100
90 Day Mean 12 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 008/008-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/10/05