Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 June 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 1512 (S15E11) and 1513
(S15E58) each produced low-level C-class flares as well as
occasional optical subflares. Region 1512 showed spot and penumbral
growth in its intermediate portion along with an increase in
magnetic complexity and was classified as a Dki/beta-gamma. Region
1513 showed a minor increase in spot count during the period and was
classified as a Cso/beta. New Regions 1514 (S16E55) and 1515
(S16E70) were numbered and were classified as a Bxo/beta and
Cso/beta, respectively. Region 1515 produced occasional optical
subflares during the latter half of the period. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (28 – 30 June) with a chance for an M-class
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet with unsettled to active periods
detected at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (28 June). Field activity is expected
to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 2 (29 June) with a
chance for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high-speed stream
(CH HSS). A further increase to unsettled to active levels is
expected on day 3 (29 June) with a chance for minor storm levels due
to CH HSS effects.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jun 106
Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 110/115/115
90 Day Mean 27 Jun 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 006/007-009/010-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/25
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 10/20/40