Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 June 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1504 (S18E51)
produced an M1 flare at 10/0645Z and grew to end the period as a Dac
type group with a beta magnetic configuration. New Regions 1506
(N11E66) and 1507 (S26E29) were numbered today and classified as Cao
and Dao type groups, respectively, with beta type magnetic
configurations. The remaining regions were generally stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to range
from low to moderate. An isolated M-class event is likely from
Region 1504.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was generally at quiet levels. Wind speed at
the ACE spacecraft was approximately 440 km/s through the period.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
+/-4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to range from quiet to unsettled levels for the next
three days (11-13 June) with a chance for an isolated active period
on the first two days. A weak coronal hole high speed stream is
expected on day one (11 June) and a glancing blow from the 08 June
CME is expected on day 2 (12 June). Day three will see a return to
mostly quiet conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jun 128
Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 10 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/30/20