Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 04 April 2012

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Apr 04 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been low for the past 24 hours.
Region 1450 (N17W19) produced a C1 flare at 04/1627Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with C-class flares likely for the next three days (05-07
April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (05 April) due to a
weak CME that was associated with the filament eruption that
occurred on 02 April. Days two and three (06-07 April) are expected
to return to quiet levels.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 102
Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 04 Apr 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/05/05