Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 03 April 2012

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Apr 03 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low for the past 24 hours.
Region 1450 (N16W04) produced two B4 flare events, one at 02/2220Z
and the other at 03/1228Z. A weak CME associated with a filament
eruption near N30E11, became visible on LASCO C2 imagery at
02/2348Z. This CME has a northerly trajectory and is not expected
to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class flares for the next three days (04-06
April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (04-05 April)
due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective on 04
April, followed by the anticipated arrival of a weak CME associated
with the filament eruption that occurred at 02/0224Z. Day three (06
April) is expected to return to quiet levels.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 104
Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 100/110/115
90 Day Mean 03 Apr 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 007/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/05