Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 April 2012

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Apr 02 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low for the past 24 hours.
Region 1451 (N17E25) produced a B7 event at 02/0234Z. New Regions
1452 (N18E47) and 1453 (S17E01) were numbered today. A weak
Earth-directed CME, associated with a filament eruption near N26E14,
became visible on LASCO C2 imagery at 02/0224Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days
(03-05 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (03 April). Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (04-05
April) due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective
early on 04 April followed the next day by the arrival of the weak
CME associated with this mornings filament eruption.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Apr 106
Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 110/125/130
90 Day Mean 02 Apr 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 009/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 006/005-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 05/15/25