Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 March 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1429
(N18W62) produced a long duration M7 flare at 13/1741Z associated
with Type II and IV radio sweeps (estimated velocity 1366 km/s), a
1400 sfu Tenflare, and an assymetric-halo CME (plane-of-sky velocity
1375 km/s) with a mostly northwest trajectory. The geoeffectiveness
of this CME is currently under evaluation.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare until Region
1429 rotates off the visible disk on 15 March. Day 3 (16 March)
solar activity is expected to decrease to low levels with a slight
chance for isolated moderate activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10
MeV and greater than 100 MeV protons became rapidly enhanced just
after the M7 flare with associated CME. The greater than 10 MeV
event began at 13/1810Z, reached a maximum flux of 469 PFU at
13/2045Z and is decreasing. The greater than 100 MeV event also
began at 13/1810Z, reached a maximum flux of 18.9 PFU and is also
decreasing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 and 15
March). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
conditions on day 3 (16 March) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M 70/70/20
Class X 20/20/01
Proton 99/90/80
PCAF red
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 141
Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 13 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 028/037
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10