Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 March 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Mar 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1429 (N18W38)
exhibited little change over the period and remained a complex Ekc
spot group with Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic characteristics. New
Regions 1433 (N12E63) and 1434 (S22E58) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to range
from low to high levels for the next three days (12 – 14 March).
Further M-class activity is expected from Region 1429 with a chance
for an X-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. Solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft ranged from 420 km/s to 480 km/s
while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not
vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. The greater than 100 MeV proton event at
geosynchronous orbit that began at 07/0405Z, reached a maximum of 69
pfu at 07/1525Z, and ended at 10/1650Z. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at 07/0510Z, reached
a maximum of 6530 pfu at 08/1115Z, was still ongoing at the close of
the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels with isolated
major storm periods possible on day one (12 March) as the 09 March
CME is expected to become geoeffective. On day two (13 March), the
10 March CME, associated with the M8 flare, is expected to become
geoeffective early to mid-day with minor to severe storm levels
expected. By day three (14 March), conditions are expected to
decrease to unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm
periods possible. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected
to decrease to below event levels by 13 March.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 40/40/40
Proton 99/60/40
PCAF red
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 131
Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 11 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 017/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 022/030-030/050-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/25
Minor storm 25/30/15
Major-severe storm 15/25/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/35
Minor storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/60/15