Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 5 March 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Mar 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been high. An X1/2b flare occurred
at 05/0409Z from Region 1429 (N17E41). This flare was associated
with a full halo CME with a LASCO C3 plane of sky speed of about
1340 km/sec. Region 1429 has a beta-delta magnetic class with an
area of approximately 810 millionths, and appears to be growing. The
region produced additional M-class flares during the period. New
Region 1431 (S27W36) was numbered today and is a small B-type
sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, but there is a chance for additional major flare activity
and/or a greater than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled with the
exception of some active to minor storm periods at high latitudes. A
greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement began at about 05/0030Z.
Flux levels remained elevated throughout the day and reached a peak
of 3.9 pfu at 05/1630Z. The initial increase was associated with the
long duration M2 flare of 04 March, but additional particles were
also contributed by today’s X1/CME event. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for day 1 (06 Mar) due to
combined effects from the M4/CME event observed on 04 March and a
favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream. Active
conditions with a chance for minor storm periods are forecast for
the second day (07 Mar) due to a expected glancing blow from today’s
X1/full halo CME. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for
the third day (08 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 132
Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 135/140/140
90 Day Mean 05 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 012/015-013/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 25/35/15
Major-severe storm 30/40/10