Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 March 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Mar 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Both Regions 1427 (N15W31) and
1429 (N18E68) produced low level C-class flares including a long
duration C1.9 x-ray flare at 03/1948Z with an associated Tenflare
(220 sfu) from Region 1429. Initial analysis of newly numbered
Region 1429 indicates it is a Dkc spot class with a Beta-Gamma
magnetic classification. Another spot group was observed emerging
in the SE quadrant and was numbered Region 1428 (S17E51).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with M-class flares likely from Region 1429.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated minor
storm periods observed at high latitudes from 03/0600 – 1200Z.
Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft has declined from
approximately 420 km/s to 380 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field has remained predominantly south near
-5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (04 March) as a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to become
geoeffective. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 2 (05
March). On day 3 (06 March) another CH HSS is expected to move into
geoeffective position causing quiet to unsettled conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Mar 116
Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 03 Mar 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 007/008-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/15
Minor storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor storm 15/10/15
Major-severe storm 05/01/05