Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 2 March 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Mar 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity reached moderate levels today. An M3/Sf
flare was observed off the NE limb at 02/1746Z near N16. As the
region rotates on the visible disk, a more detailed analysis of its
complexity can be determined. STEREO B EUVI 195 imagery indicated a
possible CME associated with the event beginning at 02/1746Z,
however, further imagery from SOHO/LASCO will be needed to confirm.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with M-class activity likely from the new region rotating onto the
NE limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with an isolated minor
storm period observed at high latitudes during the period 02/1200 –
1500Z. Activity was due to sustained periods of southward Bz of the
interplanetary magnetic field coupled with an elevated solar wind
speed around 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled conditions on day 1 (03
March). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 2 (04 March).
A recurrent coronal high speed stream is expected increase
conditions to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 (05 March).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 108
Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 02 Mar 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 008/008-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/15
Minor storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor storm 15/10/15
Major-severe storm 05/01/05