Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 March 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Mar 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. There was one C-class
flare duing the past 24 hours, a C3/1f from Region 1423 (N17W21) at
01/1526Z. New Region 1427 (N15W01) was numbered today. A CME was
observed at 29/1824Z (using LASCO C2) from the north polar region of
the sun, however it is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active with isolated storm
periods at high latitudes. The elevated activity appears to be
related to a solar sector boundary crossing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first and second days
(02-03 Mar) due to a small yet well positioned coronal hole. A
return to quiet levels is expected on the third day (04 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 103
Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 01 Mar 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Feb 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 25/15/10
Major-severe storm 15/05/05