Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 1354 (S17E05) and 1356
(N15E42) each produced low-level C-class events. The largest event
was a C4 at 22/0404Z from Region 1356 which is classified as an
Fki-type group with a beat-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region
1358 (N20E80) was numbered today and is an Hsx-alpha type spot
group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (23-25 November) with a chance for M-class
activity from Region 1356.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (23-25
November).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 142
Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 140/145/145
90 Day Mean 22 Nov 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 005/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 00/00/00
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 13/13/13
Major-severe storm 07/07/07