Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Frequent C-class flares
occurred during the period, mostly from Region 1354 (S17E30). Region
1354 showed little change during the period, but exhibited a
moderately complex beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region
1357 (N17W18) was numbered and showed gradual spot growth. It
produced a single low-level C-class flare during the period. A slow
CME was observed off the northwest limb, first visible in SOHO/LASCO
C2 images at around 20/1448Z. The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky
speed of 163 km/s and was likely associated with a filament eruption
from the northwest quadrant. STEREO-A observations suggest the CME
had an Earthward component, but further analysis will be required
due to limited data.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (21 – 23 November) with a chance for an M-class
flare from Region 1354.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet through the period (21 – 23 November). The
above-mentioned CME is not expected to disturb the field during the
period.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 140
Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 140/135/135
90 Day Mean 20 Nov 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 001/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01