Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1354 (S15E56) showed
gradual intermediate spot growth and produced a C2/Sf flare at
18/1723Z, as well as occasional optical subflares. Region 1346
(S17W17) showed minor spot growth during the period and produced a
C1/Sf flare at 18/1643Z. New Region 1355 (N14E73) rotated into view
and produced a single optical subflare. Multiple CMEs were evident
in SOHO/LASCO and STEREO images, but none were deemed to be
Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (19 – 21 November) with a chance for an M-class
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (19 November)
due to a possible glancing blow from a CME observed on 14 November.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels for the remainder
of the period (20 – 21 November).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 144
Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 18 Nov 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01