Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. A long duration M1 flare was observed at 09/1335Z.
Associated with this event were a Type II radio sweep with an
estimated shock velocity of 750 km/s and a eruptive filament channel
with a possible Earth directed CME. This filament channel was
located between Region 1342 (N17E22) and Region 1343 (N27E37) in the
Northeast quadrant of the visible disk. Imagery is still coming in
at the time of this report, but STEREO B and SDO/AIA imagery do
indicate a CME liftoff. Region 1339 (N21W19) has some simpliciation
in its magnetic structure but still remains classified as a
beta-gamma. New Region 1345 (S24W01) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (10-12 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (10 November). An increase
to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 2 (11 November) as
the effects of a CME, from 08 November, are forecast. An increase to
unsettled to active conditions on day 3 (12 November) is expected,
as the CME, associated with today’s M1 flare, is expected to become
geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 180
Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 180/180/175
90 Day Mean 09 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 005/005-010/010-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/25/30
Minor storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/35
Minor storm 01/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05