Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1324 (N12E55) produced three C-class events, the largest a C5 at
19/0455Z. The region has grown significantly in area and is
considered an Fkc-type group with a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. New Region 1325 (N16E82) was numbered today and is an
Hax-alpha region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (20-22 October) with a chance for M-class
activity from Regions 1319 (N10W53) and 1324.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (20-22 October).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 147
Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 145/150/150
90 Day Mean 19 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01