Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 15 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There are 8 numbered regions on
the disk producing weak C-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with C-class flares expected and a chance for M-class flares for the
next 3 days (16-18 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with the exception of an
isolated period of unsettled conditions 15/00-03Z, due to increased
solar wind speeds combined with a period of southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active days 1-2 (16-17 October) due to
CH HSS effects. Conditions are forecast to be mostly quiet on day 3
(18 October) as solar wind speeds wane.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 138
Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 15 Oct 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor storm 30/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/40/20
Minor storm 40/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01