Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Despite 9 regions on the disk,
only low level C-class flares have occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next 3 days (15-17 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with an isolated minor storm
possible on day 1 (15 October) and mostly unsettled with
intermittent active periods on days 2-3 (16-17 October). The
activity is forecast as effects from an anticipated CH HSS.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 136
Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 14 Oct 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 012/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 50/40/30
Minor storm 40/30/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/50/40
Minor storm 50/40/10
Major-severe storm 10/05/01