Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 September 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Sep 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. An M1/1n flare was
observed at 23/0159Z from Region 1295 (N25W74) along with several
C-class flares, including an long-duration flare at 23/0850Z. Region
1302 (N13E58) remains the most significant region on the disk as an
Eki Beta-Gamma with an area of 780 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be high,
with a slight chance for another X-class flare from Region 1302.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous
orbit are expected to exceed the 10 pfu threshold during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (24 September). Quiet, with isolated
unsettled levels, are expected on day two (25 September), due to a
weak coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet levels are expected on
day three (26 September).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 90/80/50
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 158
Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 160/165/170
90 Day Mean 23 Sep 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 005/005-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01