Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 September 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Sep 13 2234 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the period. Two C1 X-ray
flares were observed at 13/0419Z and 13/1801Z from Region 1296
(N23E59) and Region 1283 (N14, L=227) which rotated off the NW limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class flares for the period (14- 16
September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated
minor to major levels between 13/0300 – 0900Z. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the period (14 – 16
September).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 129
Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 13 Sep 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 017/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 013/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 008/012-006/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01