Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 September 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Sep 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1283
(N14W18) produced an M5/1b flare at 06/0150Z associated with Types
II and IV radio sweeps and an Earth-directed full-halo CME. The CME
had an estimated speed of around 450 km/sec, based upon STEREO-A
COR2 data, with the bulk of the ejecta directed north of the
ecliptic plane. Region 1283 appeared to develop a magnetic delta
configuration in its north-central portion and was classified as an
Eai-type with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Old Region
1286 (N20, L = 310) produced multiple CMEs from beyond the west
limb, none of which were Earth-directed. New Region 1289 (N24E78)
was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (07 – 09 September) with more M-class
flare activity likely from Region 1283.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. Proton flux
enhancements at greater than 100 MeV and greater than 10 MeV began
around 06/0300Z at geosynchronous orbit in the wake of the M5 flare
mentioned above.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (07 – 09
September). The halo-CME mentioned above is not expected to affect
the field during the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 112
Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 110/105/100
90 Day Mean 06 Sep 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01