Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 21 July 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Regions 1254 (S24W28) and
1259 (N25E32) remained present on the disk but were quiet and
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (22-24 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled for the majority of the
period, before decreasing to quiet conditions as Bz turned primarily north. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for days 1-2 (22-23 July), then
decreasing to mostly quiet on day 3 (24 July) as coronal hole
effects wane.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 096
Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 096/095/095
90 Day Mean 21 Jul 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 012/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor storm 30/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/40/20
Minor storm 40/30/20
Major-severe storm 10/05/01