Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 July 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There were seven numbered
active regions on the disk today, but all remain quiet and stable.
The two most significant, Region 1257 (N20W83) and Region 1254
(S22W04) were classified as Dso Beta groups, producing only a few
weak B-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for a C-class flare over the next 3 days
(20-22 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with the
exception of an isolated period of active conditions at mid
latitudes and a minor storm at high latitudes between 19/15Z-19/18Z.
This activity was associated with the onset of coronal hole high
speed stream effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at mostly unsettled to active levels with and
isolated minor storm possible on days 1 and 2 (20-21 July) as the
result of coronal hole high speed stream effects. Conditions should
decrease to primarily unsettled levels with the chance for isolated
active periods on day 3 (22 July), as coronal hole effects begin to
decline.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 100
Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 19 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 012/012-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 20/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01