Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 July 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. There were several
B-class flares observed in the past 24 hours from Region 1243
(N17E22) and new Region 1244 (N16W10). Region 1244 emerged on the
disk and is a small B-type sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. ACE solar wind data
indicated velocities up to 450 km/s consistent with a high speed
stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on day 1 (2 July). Days 2 and 3 (3
– 4 July) are expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 088
Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 01 Jul 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 010/015-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/15
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/20/20
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01