Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There was only one flare
during the past 24 hours, a B2 at 0458Z from Region 1239 (N18W14).
Region 1236 (N16W32) is the largest region on the disk but has
decayed somewhat and is now a 140 millionths, C-type sunspot group.
Region 1239 and 1250 (S19E16) are both small, B-type sunspot groups.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. Observations of the solar wind from the ACE spacecraft
indicate a noticeable increase in solar wind velocity during the
last three hours of the analysis interval with end-of-period speeds
at about 600 km/s. The signatures appear to be consistent with a
high speed stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with a chance for minor storm periods
at mid-latitudes and major storm periods at high latitudes for the
next two days (23-24 June). Effects from the high speed stream
should prevail early on the 23rd. An additional contribution to
activity is expected sometime between 1200-1800Z on the 23rd due to
the arrival of the halo CME observed on 21 June. Conditions should
decrease to unsettled to active levels for the third day (25 June).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jun 093
Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 22 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 018/018-025/030-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/15
Minor storm 30/30/10
Major-severe storm 15/20/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/25/15
Minor storm 35/35/10
Major-severe storm 25/30/10