Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1234 (S16W87)
produced two B-class flares as it approached the west limb. Region
1236 (N17W07) showed little change during the period and remained an
Esi group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration (due to mixed
polarities in the leader portion of the group). New Regions 1239
(N18E13) and 1240 (S17E42) were numbered. Both were small,
magnetically simple spot groups.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low through the period (21 – 23 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (21 June) due
to weak coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Activity is
expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 2 (22 June). An increase
to quiet to unsettled levels is expected for day 3 (23 June) with a
chance for active levels as another CH HSS begins to disturb the
field.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 096
Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 095/095/100
90 Day Mean 20 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 007/008-005/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/25
Minor storm 05/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/30
Minor storm 10/01/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/10