Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1236 (N17E58)
produced a C7/1n flare at 16/1022Z with weak radio emissions in the
2695MHz to 15.4 GHz range, including a 130 sfu 10cm burst. The
region showed little change over the past 24 hours. Region 1234
(S16W29) produced low-level B-class activity during the period. The
region showed modest growth in spot count. Two low-level C-class
x-ray events were observed from a region behind the east limb near
S17. These events most likely originated from old Region 1223 (S17,
L=130). A 10 degree eruptive filament, centered near S23W35, was
observed lifting off just SW of Region 1234. Filament movement was
first observed on SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 16/1426Z with a subsequent
narrow CME off the SW limb, first observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery
at 16/1612Z. Initial plane-of-sky velocity was estimated at 190
km/s. This slow CME does not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class events all three days of the period (17 –
19 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind velocities
were steady at about 450 km/s through 16/1500Z when a slight
increase to about 480 km/s was observed. Coupled with the wind
increase were slight rises in temperature and density, along with a
general increase in low energy particles.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active
periods on day one and two (17 – 18 June). The forecasted increase
in activity is in response to possible effects of a glancing blow
from the CME observed early on 14 June. By day three (19 June),
field conditions are expected to return to mostly quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jun 103
Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 16 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 008/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 10/10/01