Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 May 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The two spotted regions
on the visible disk were magnetically simple and quiescent.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the forecast period (25 – 27 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The goemagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with one unsettled
period early in the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days 1 and 2 (25-26 May), becoming
unsettled on day 3 (27 May) with the return of a coronal hole high
speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 May 082
Predicted 25 May-27 May 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 24 May 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 005/007-005/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/30
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/30/40
Minor storm 05/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/10