Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 May 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 May 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The three spotted regions
on the disk are small and magnetically simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next three days (23 – 25 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on Days 1 and 2 (23-24 May), becoming quiet to
unsettled with the approach of a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream on Day 3 (25 May).
III. Event Probabilities 24 May-26 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 084
Predicted 24 May-26 May 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 23 May 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May-26 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/30
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05