Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 7 April 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Apr 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Four C-class flares
were observed during the period from a region on the NE limb. New
Region 1187 (S19E62) was numbered today as an alpha group. A CME was
observed from the SE limb on SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 07/0754Z, with
a speed of approximately 548 km/s. The origin of the CME appears to
be an active filament channel in the SE quadrant. This CME is not
expected to be geoeffective. A second CME was observed from the SE
limb on SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 07/1042Z, with an approximate
speed of 824 km/s. The origin appears to be a flare from old Region
1176, which rotated off the west limb on 04 April. This CME is also
not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels. A single
unsettled activity period was observed between 07/0000Z – 07/0300Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08-09 April).
Activity is expected to increase on day three (10 April) due to a
coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 112
Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 110/100/095
90 Day Mean 07 Apr 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 016/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 005/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/35
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/40
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05