Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 February 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Feb 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate during the past 24
hours. New Region 1163 (N18E72) produced an M3 x-ray event at
24/0738Z associated with a 180 sfu Tenflare, a Type II radio sweep
(estimated velocity of 1283 km/s) and a Type IV radio sweep. This
region is still rotating onto the visible disk. Region 1161 (N11W87)
and Region 1162 (N17W89) have been quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days (25-27 February), with Region
1163 the most likely source for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (25-27
February).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 089
Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 090/088/088
90 Day Mean 24 Feb 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 007/007-007/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01