Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 February 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Feb 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been high. Region 1158 (S20W03)
produced an M6/1N flare at 13/1738Z associated with a 130 sfu
Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1119 km/s).
Region 1158 grew in area and developed a complex E-type sunspot
group with a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 1157
(N18W30) and Region 1159 (N19W01) both grew slightly but remain
magnetically simple while Region 1160 (N16E74) decayed to spotless
plage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a chance for a major x-ray event for days one thru
three (14-16 February). Region 1158 continued growth and recent
major flare make this region the most likely source for a major
event. There is a slight chance for C-class activity from Region
1157 and Region 1159.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind data from the ACE
satellite indicate a drop in solar wind velocity to approximately
310 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on day one (14 February). Quiet
to unsettled with a chance for active conditions are expected on
days two and three (15-16 February), due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream becoming geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 107
Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 13 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 005/005-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/20
Minor storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/30/25
Minor storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01