Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Feb 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with the chance for a C-class flare for the next 3 days
(2-4 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled until a period of
active conditions occurred at mid latitudes at 01/18Z associated
with the onset of recurrent coronal hole effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for a minor storm
on day 1 (2 February) due to coronal hole effects along with
intermittent periods of Bz south. On day 2 (3 February), unsettled
to active conditions are forecast until the anticipated mid-day
arrival of the CME from 30 January, when an isolated minor storm
will become likely. Conditions on day 3 (4 February) are expected to
be mostly unsettled to active as coronal hole effects begin to wane.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 080
Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 01 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 010/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 012/012-015/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 60/35/30
Minor storm 10/50/20
Major-severe storm 05/15/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 60/20/35
Minor storm 20/60/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/15