Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 9 January 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1140
(N32W49) produced a B1 flare at 09/1351Z. Region 1140 showed signs
of decay with the loss of spots in the positive-polarity field just
north of the main spot and was classified as an Hsx group. The
remaining spot groups were A- and B-types with simple magnetic
configurations, including newly numbered Regions 1144 (S16W36) and
1145 (N15E35).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels through the period (10 – 12 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity remained at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind measurements indicated Earth remained within a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities were variable
in the 554 to 648 km/s range. IMF Bt showed a gradual increase with
a peak value of 6 nT observed late in the period. IMF Bz was
variable and ranged from +5 to -4 nT during the period. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during day 1 (10
January) as the coronal hole high-speed stream persists. Field
activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during days 2 – 3
(11 – 12 January) as the high-speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 083
Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 082/082/080
90 Day Mean 09 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/10
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01