Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 December 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Dec 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Region 1130 (N14W40) produced a C1 flare at 01/0622Z and appears to
be growing steadily.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for additional C-class activity due
to the growth of Region 1130 and the return of old Regions 1124
(N14, L=190) and 1123 (S22, L=171).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (02 December). Quiet to
unsettled conditions with a chance for isolated active periods is
expected on days two and three (03-04 December) due to possible
effects from a CME associated with the disappearing filament
observed on 29 November. The CME observed near N15E40 on 30
November could also contribute to elevated activity on those days.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 087
Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 088/090/090
90 Day Mean 01 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 005/005-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/20
Minor storm 01/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/30/25
Minor storm 05/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01