Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 November 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Nov 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 1127 (N24W71)
was quiet and stable. Region 1128 (S14E35) has decayed to spotless
plage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (28-30 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Observations at the
ACE satellite indicated the onset of recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream. Wind speeds reached approximately 450 km/s during the
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached moderate levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with a slight chance
for an isolated active period on day one (28 November). The increase
is forecast due to elevated solar wind speed from a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream. Observations from the Behind
satellite indicate the enhanced wind speeds should subside during
day one. Days two and three (29-30) November are expected to be
quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 077
Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 077/077/078
90 Day Mean 27 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 003/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 007/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01