Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 12 November 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Nov 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Multiple C-class events, from Region 1123 (S22W10), were
observed throughout the period, the largest being a C4.6/Sf at
12/0134Z. Associated with this event were discrete radio emissions
at 245 MHz and 610 MHz, a Type II radio sweep, with an estimated
shock velocity of 505 km/s, and finally LASCO C2 imagery showed a
CME liftoff at 12/0248Z. Region 1124 (N14E12) has shown some growth
in spot count and areal coverage but has remained quiet. New Region
1126 (S28E73) was numbered late in the forecast period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for
the next three days (13-15 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels with
isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes for the past 24
hours. Mostly unsettled to active conditions were observed from
11/2100Z – 12/1300Z. At around 12/1500Z, signatures from the ACE
spacecraft showed a decrease in density, solar wind speed, and
temperature as the geomagnetic field started to recover from
yesterdays CME driven disturbance. Quiet levels were observed for
the remainder of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13
November). Activity is expected to increase to mostly unsettled
levels on day two (14 November) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (15 November). This increase in activity is due to the
arrival of multiple small CME’s mixed with the effects of a
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 085
Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 085/084/084
90 Day Mean 12 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 007/008-010/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/30
Minor storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/30/35
Minor storm 01/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01