Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 September 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1110 (N19W45) produced
a C2/Sf flare at 28/2211Z. This region is a D-type group with a
beta magnetic configuration. Region 1109 (N22W24) remains an E-type
group with a beta magnetic configuration. New Region 1111 (N23E55)
was numbered today. The 10cm solar flux has shown a slight rise in
background levels for 29 September.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a C-class event likely.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (30
September – 02 October).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 091
Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 084/083/083
90 Day Mean 29 Sep 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01