Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 1 May 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low. GOES-14 SXI imagery observed a
C5.7/sf x-ray flare at 01/0139Z. The source of this event was
located just beyond the east limb at N24. The remainder of the disk
and limb was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with C-class flares likely including a slight chance of
M-class activity, all due from the active area on the NE limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for day one (02 May). Quiet to unsettled
levels, with isolated active levels, are expected on day two (03
May). A further increase in activity to unsettled to active, with
isolated minor storm periods, is expected on day three (04 May).
Isolated major storm periods at high latitudes is also possible on
day three. The expected increase in activity on 03 – 04 May is due
to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 May 078
Predicted 02 May-04 May 080/082/084
90 Day Mean 01 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 005/005-010/012-018/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/30
Minor storm 01/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/35
Minor storm 01/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/15