Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 February 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Isolated B-class flares
occurred during the period. New Region 1049 (S19E02) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
levels during days 1 – 2 (18 – 19 February). Activity is expected to
decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (20 February).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 087
Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 088/088/086
90 Day Mean 17 Feb 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 011/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 010/010-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01