Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Dec 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Dec 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Today’s activity
consisted of two C-class events both from Region 1035 (N30W18), the
first a C5/Sf at 0124Z and the second a C3 at 1302Z. A slow-moving,
partial-halo CME was associated with the C5 event. Region 1035 has
not shown significant growth during the past 24 hours. However,
there does appear to be a small delta magnetic configuration in the
central portion of the region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region
1035.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet during the next three days (17-19 December).
(The partial halo CME discussed in Part 1A, above, is expected to
arrive on day 4 and increase geomagnetic activity to unsettled to
active levels).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 083
Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 16 Dec 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01