Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Sep 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Sep 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred and the
solar disk continues to be void of sunspots. There are indications,
however, of a possible new active region behind the east limb based
on Stereo-B EUVI and GOES-14 SXI imagery.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. A gradual increase in background levels is expected and a
slight chance for an isolated B-class flare is anticipated as the
new region rotates onto the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (20-22 September).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 071
Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 072/074/076
90 Day Mean 19 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01