Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Sep 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Sep 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (8-10 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet with isolated unsettled periods on day one and
day two (8-9 September). The increased activity is due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. On day three (10
September), the geomagnetic field will return to quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 069
Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 07 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 005/008-007/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01