Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 20 Aug 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels.
One isolated active period was observed between 20/0300 – 0600Z. The
activity was in response to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed
stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (21 – 23 August).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Aug 068
Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 20 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 009/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01