Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 Aug 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected
and the visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind measurements indicated the unsettled conditions were due
to a period of southward IMF Bz coupled with increases in velocities
and IMF Bt associated with a coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar
wind velocities reached a peak of 533 km/sec at 08/0615Z, then
gradually decreased to a low of 429 km/sec by the end of the summary
period as the high-speed stream subsided.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 – 2 (09
-10 August), with a chance for active periods, due to another
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to
decrease to mostly quiet levels by day 3 (11 August) as the
high-speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 067
Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 08 Aug 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 007/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/10
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01