Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 Aug 2009
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind observations
from the ACE spacecraft indicated the onset of a high-speed stream
from a recurrent coronal hole. Velocities increased from around 380
km/s to 520 km/s with +/- 13 nT fluctuations in the IMF Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated
active periods for day one (07 August) as the recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream remains geoeffective. Quiet conditions are
expected on day two (08 August). Quiet to unsettled conditions with
a slight chance for isolated active periods are expected for day
three (09 August) due to the next recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 067
Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 06 Aug 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 007/007-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/10/30
Minor storm 05/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
